Featured Papers

Area:
2026 Economic Analysis and Policy Innovation

The complementary role of human capital in innovation-driven decarbonization

Loaiza, F.

Investigates how absorptive capacity — the interaction between tertiary education and R&D investment — amplifies the impact of innovation on carbon emissions. Finds that R&D alone reduces emissions, but its effect is significantly stronger in countries with higher levels of education.

doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2026.01.066

2026 Science Carbon Markets

More than mitigation: The role of forests in climate adaptation

Reek, J. E., Smith, G., Zohner, C. M., Cook-Patton, S., [...] Probst, B., [...] Crowther, T. W.

Reviews how forests regulate climate at global and local scales, from carbon uptake and temperature buffering to rainfall and flood risk. Finds the greatest climate benefits occur where forests are native, underscoring their role in both mitigation and adaptation.

doi.org/10.1126/science.ads4361

2026 Global Sustainability Carbon Markets

Ten new insights in climate science 2025

Ospina, D., Mirazo, P., Allan, R. P., [...] Probst, B. S., [...] Zhu, S.

An annual synthesis highlighting and explaining recent advances across climate change research. The 2025 edition covers ten key topics including the record warmth of 2023/2024, acceleration of ocean warming, northern land carbon sinks under strain, biodiversity-climate feedbacks, groundwater depletion, global dengue incidence, economic losses, strategic CDR scaling, integrity challenges in carbon credit markets, and effective policy mixes. Written by over 70 climate scientists from 21 countries.

doi.org/10.1017/sus.2025.10043

2025 Nature Carbon Markets

Carbon credits are failing to help with climate change — here’s why

Macintosh, A., Barley, S., Probst, B., Dooley, K., Cullenward, D., Sumaila, R., Trencher, G., West, T., Rockström, J.

This comment piece critically evaluates how carbon offsets are being used within compliance markets, arguing that low-quality offsets artificially suppress carbon prices and undermine the effectiveness of carbon-pricing mechanisms designed to drive genuine emission reductions.

doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-03313-z

2025 Nature Communications Corporate Decarbonisation Carbon Markets

The negligible role of carbon offsetting in corporate climate strategies

Stolz, N., Probst, B.

Analysis of 89 multinational companies finds no meaningful correlation between purchasing carbon credits and improving climate performance. Despite these firms retiring approximately one-fourth of all carbon credits in 2022, their offsetting spending represented merely 1% of capital expenditures.

doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62970-w

2025 Nature Sustainability Carbon Markets Corporate Decarbonisation

Accounting for embodied emissions of chemicals within the European Carbon Border Adjustment Measure

Bardow, A., Minten, H., Hausweiler, J., Probst, B., Reinert, C., Meys, R.

Examines the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism applied to the chemical industry, covering 4,470 global chemical production facilities. Finds the current CBAM framework accounts for only 50–60% of actual production emissions for key chemicals.

doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01618-5

2025 Nature Sustainability Carbon Markets Corporate Decarbonisation

Closing emission gaps in border carbon adjustments for chemicals and plastics

Minten, H., Hausweiler, J., Probst, B., Reinert, C., Meys, R., Bardow, A.

Proposes policy improvements to expand CBAM coverage to fossil feedstocks, which would increase emission coverage to 93% for ethylene and 94% for polyethylene, and recommends strengthening fallback values at the highest-emitting facilities.

doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01622-9

2025 Nature Communications Carbon Markets

Scientific literature on carbon dioxide removal much larger than previously suggested

Lück, S., Callaghan, M., [...] Probst, B., [...] Minx, J. C.

A comprehensive mapping of the carbon dioxide removal literature reveals that the body of scientific evidence on CDR is substantially larger than previously documented, with implications for research synthesis and policy guidance.

doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-61485-8

2025 Global Change Biology Carbon Markets

Demystifying the romanticized narratives about carbon credits from voluntary forest conservation

West, T. A. P., Probst, B. et al.

Critically examines the scientific theories, concepts, and evidence regarding REDD+ projects in the voluntary carbon market. Independent studies consistently point to shortcomings in the rigour and credibility of crediting methodologies, which market players have been slow to address.

doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70527

2025 University of Oxford Carbon Markets

Oxford Principles for Responsible Engagement with Article 6

Johnstone, I., Schneider, L., Michaelowa, A., de Grandpré, J., Kuci, S., Ahonen, H.-M., Probst, B. S., Lezak, S., Hale, T., La Hoz Theuer, S., Omukuti, J., Reséndiz, J. L., Fankhauser, S., Abebe, S. K., Hepburn, C.

Establishes three core principles for responsible engagement with international carbon trading under the Paris Agreement: ensuring mitigation outcomes align with Paris commitments, ensuring climate integrity while upholding social and environmental protections, and establishing robust accounting and transparent Article 6 engagement.

doi.org/10.5287/ora-zb2kdqd1v

2025 Pre-print Carbon Markets

Non-profits deliver more accurate forestry carbon credits than for-profits

Neumann, A., West, T. A. P., Schneider, L., Toetzke, M., Trotter, P., Probst, B.

Examines how organisational type influences carbon credit outcomes, finding that non-profits are more than twice as likely as for-profits to deliver carbon credits that represent real emission reductions.

doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5982419/v1

2025 Campus (Book) Corporate Decarbonisation Carbon Markets

Race to Zero: How Companies Can Lead the Way to Climate Neutrality

Probst, B., Krüger, M.

This book addresses climate change as both an environmental and business risk, offering business leaders a practical roadmap for complementing conventional mitigation strategies with carbon removal. Covers cutting-edge carbon removal technologies, strategic frameworks, and practical implementation steps.

ISBN: 3593461420 · Updated English edition

2025 Pre-print (SSRN) Innovation

Analyzing the dynamics of innovation networks in climate technologies using large language models

Toetzke, M., Probst, B., Feuerriegel, S., Diaz Anadon, L., Hoffmann, V. H.

Uses large language models to analyse the structure and evolution of innovation networks in climate technologies, extending prior work on LLM-based monitoring to map collaborative dynamics across inventors, firms, and research institutions.

SSRN 4810933

2024 Nature Communications Carbon Markets

Systematic assessment of the achieved emission reductions of carbon crediting projects

Probst, B., Toetzke, M., Kontoleon, A., Anadón, L.D., Minx, J.C., Haya, B.K., Schneider, L., Trotter, P.A., West, T.A.P., Gill-Wiehl, A., Hoffmann, V.H.

Systematic assessment synthesising evidence covering nearly 1 billion tons of CO₂e finds that less than 16% of carbon credits from evaluated projects represented actual emission reductions. Provides the most comprehensive evidence to date on the effectiveness of carbon crediting across different project types and standards.

doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53645-z

2024 Nature Energy Innovation

Development and transition pathways for fossil fuel-producing low and lower-middle income countries

Foster, V., Trotter, P.A., [...] Probst, B., et al.

Examines the development challenges and energy transition pathways available to fossil fuel-producing countries in the Global South, analysing how these nations can navigate the shift away from fossil fuels while maintaining economic development.

doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01440-3

2024 J. Economic Psychology Innovation

High levels of air pollution reduce team performance

Lohmann, P., Probst, B., Gsottbauer, E., Kontoleon, A.

Investigates the causal effect of air pollution on team-level cognitive performance, finding that elevated pollution levels significantly reduce collaborative problem-solving and team productivity.

doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2024.102705

2024 Campus (Book) Corporate Decarbonisation Carbon Markets

Race to Zero: Wie Unternehmen den Wettlauf zur Klimaneutralität gewinnen

Probst, B., Krüger, M.

German edition exploring how companies can lead the transition to climate neutrality, combining scientific evidence with practical business strategies for carbon removal and emission reduction.

ISBN: 3593518694 · German edition

2024 Report Carbon Markets

The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal 2024 — 2nd Edition

Smith, S. M., Geden, O., [...] Probst, B. et al. (eds.)

Second edition of the comprehensive assessment of the current state and future potential of carbon dioxide removal methods, providing a data-driven overview of CDR technologies, policies, and deployment trends worldwide.

doi.org/10.17605/osf.io/f85qj

2023 Environ. Research Letters Innovation

Leveraging large language models to monitor climate technology innovation

Toetzke, M., Probst, B., Feuerriegel, S.

Demonstrates how large language models and machine learning techniques can systematically categorise and track thousands of climate-relevant technologies across venture capital, patents, and corporate reports at unprecedented scale.

doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf233

2023 iScience Innovation

The impact of open access mandates on scientific research and technological development in the U.S.

Probst, B., Lohmann, P., Kontoleon, A., Anadon, L.D.

Evaluates how open access mandates affect the production and diffusion of scientific knowledge and downstream technological development in the United States.

doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.107740

2023 Energy Policy Corporate Decarbonisation

The effectiveness of building retrofit subsidies: empirical evidence from Switzerland

Hondeborg, D., Probst, B., Petkov, I., Knoeri, C.

Uses empirical evidence from Swiss building retrofits to evaluate whether public subsidies effectively drive energy savings in the built environment, examining the causal impact of retrofit programmes on actual energy consumption.

doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113680

2022 Nature Energy Innovation

Africa needs context-relevant evidence to shape its clean energy future

Mulugetta, Y., Sokona, Y., Trotter, P.A., [...] Probst, B. et al.

Argues that Africa's clean energy transition requires evidence generated from African contexts rather than extrapolated from developed-country experiences, highlighting the need for locally relevant research and data.

doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01152-0

2022 Renew. & Sust. Energy Rev. Innovation

The Impact of Local Content Requirements on the Development of Export Competitiveness in Solar and Wind Technologies

Scheifele, F., Bräuning, M., Probst, B.

Investigates how local content requirements in renewable energy policy affect the development of domestic manufacturing capabilities and export competitiveness in solar and wind technology sectors.

doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112831

2021 Nature Energy Innovation

Global Trends in the Invention and Diffusion of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies

Probst, B., Touboul, S., Glachant, M., Dechezleprêtre, A.

Analyses global patterns in the invention and international diffusion of climate change mitigation technologies using patent data, revealing where innovation originates and how it spreads across countries.

doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00931-5

2021 World Development Innovation

Leveraging private investment to expand renewable power generation: Evidence from Uganda

Probst, B., Westermann, L., Kontoleon, A., Anadón, L. D.

Examines the role of private sector investment in expanding renewable energy generation capacity in Uganda, evaluating how policy frameworks and investment conditions shape clean energy deployment in developing countries.

doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105347

2020 Nature Energy Innovation

The short-term costs of local content requirements: Evidence from the Indian solar auctions

Probst, B., Anatolitis, V., Kontoleon, A., Anadón, L. D.

Estimates the short-term cost impact of local content requirements on solar energy prices using evidence from Indian solar auctions, quantifying the trade-off between domestic manufacturing promotion and renewable energy costs.

doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0677-7

2020 Nature Sustainability Carbon Markets

Impacts of a large-scale titling initiative on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Probst, B., BenYishay, A., Kontoleon, A., dos Reis, T.

Evaluates the environmental impact of a large-scale land titling programme in the Brazilian Amazon, assessing whether formalising land rights reduces deforestation rates in one of the world's most critical ecosystems.

doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0537-2

2020 World Bank Innovation

Attracting Private Solutions and Participation in the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

Probst, B., Holcroft, R., Huenteler, J., Balabanya, A., Tipping, A., Robinson, P.

World Bank policy research examining strategies for attracting private investment into Sub-Saharan Africa's power sector, analysing barriers and opportunities for expanding electricity access through private sector participation.

World Bank Policy Research Paper No. 9299

2020 KfW Development Bank Innovation

Mobilising Private Capital for Grid-Connected Renewable Power in Developing Countries — Lessons Learnt

Probst, B.

Synthesises findings from academic literature and KfW Development Bank’s experience in crowding-in private capital into grid-connected renewable energy projects in developing and emerging economies. Examines country readiness across policy, power sector, and country risk dimensions, and evaluates financial instruments including credit lines, structured finance, and risk mitigation tools.

KfW Evaluation Update No. 11